The world meteorological organization (WMO) reported that the probability that in the next three months in the Pacific ocean there will be new weak anomaly of surface temperatures in the El niño is 75-80%, reports the BBC.
El niño — a naturally occurring temperature oscillations of surface water in the Equatorial Pacific ocean.
In a narrower sense, the El niño — southern oscillation phase, in which the area of the heated surface water is moving East. At the same time weaken or even stop the trade winds, slow upwelling — the rise of warm water from deep in the Eastern Pacific ocean, off the coast of Peru.
This natural phenomenon directly influences the weather in the Pacific region and around the world.
It is associated with torrential rains and floods in South America and droughts in Africa and Asia. Often, El niño leads to record temperatures in different parts of the world.
As the findings of the WMO, the surface temperature in the tropical waters off the coast of Peru is slightly increased from October of this year. This leads to inhibition of the circulation of water and further heating. However, so far the atmosphere has not responded to excessive heat, which generates “heated” ocean.
Scientists predict the likelihood of a new El Nino event since may of this year with increasing confidence.
The Australian weather Bureau currently believes that the El Nino will begin to show in December. At the same time, American meteorologists with 90% probability believe that it will occur in January.
The model built by the WMO indicate that the probability of a new full-fledged El niño is 75-80%. Most likely, it will manifest itself between December and February 2019.
At this stage, forecasts WMO scale of severity of the phenomenon range from mild to moderate warming with the warming of the surface layers of the ocean by 0.8-1.2 degrees from the average.
The chances of occurrence is strongly expressed phenomena currently regarded as low.
“The predicted El Nino not expected to be as strong as in the years 2015-16, when the phenomenon was associated with droughts, floods and leaching of corals in different parts of the world,” — said the Director of the division prediction and adaptation, WMO Max dilly.
According to him, in spite of this, a new El niño can significantly influence the distribution of rainfall and fluctuation of temperature in many regions of the world. This will have important implications for agriculture and food production, water management and healthcare. In combination with long-term climate trends, this phenomenon can lead to record-breaking temperatures in 2019″, — he said.
Food and agriculture organization of the United Nations released a report which provides the list of countries that may experience difficulties in the food supply as a result of El niño.
Among them Honduras, Colombia and Venezuela in Central America, DRC, Central Africa, Afghanistan and Northern Pakistan in Asia.